Nothing quite says "stupid people at work" like stupid people using data they don’t understand to make an unrelated point about how the real world (in this case, the New York Times) is biased against their richly detailed fantasies. Try this:
More and more I suspect that is the catch phrase of the media today. The New York Times is indulging in wailing and gnashing of teeth because spending this Christmas is only up 3.6%. Only? Had the reporter gotten a 3.6% raise, he would be doing a happy dance down Broadway.
Or this:
Leave it to the sourpusses at the New York Times to cast a negative spin on Christmas sales that rose 3.6%.
[...]
Granted, the numbers weren’t as high as previous year, but how exactly is a 3.6% increase bleak?
I hate having to keep rehashing this same point over and over, but I’ll try and keep this brief:
Retailers this year invested heavily in marketing "loss leader" products to consumers in an effort to ‘buy’ market share away from their competitors. These products are sold at cost or below cost, which means that the retailer is not making any money; they’re just borrowing it until their bills come due to their vendors.Unfortunately this will not pay the rent, debt service, payroll, credit card processing fees, insurance, the electric bill, cost of shrinkage (theft) and all the other fun things that come with a business that does anything other than sell Beanie Babies on eBay. A key comment in the NY Times article that seems to have baffled people:
What did eventually sell was generally marked down — once, if not twice — which could hurt retailers’ profits in the final three months of year. “Stores are buying those sales at a cost,” said Sherif Mityas, a partner at the consulting firm A.T. Kearney, who specializes in retailing.
I hate to use personal/anecdotal stories to make a point , but I think this illustrates what I am getting at. Among other items, I made three of what I would call big ticket purchases for the pampered and enticing mrs tbogg this Christmas. Of those three, two were purchased at 50% off and the other at 30% off. Only the 30% item was an advertised special. The other two were unmarked in-store discounts on front-line, non-clearance products; in other words these were not products that were purchased by the retailer for the express purpose of being sold at a discount to drive customers to their door. That means that the companies selling these items were attempting to increase their cash flow and move excess product that they don’t want sitting on the sales floor during the upcoming dog days of January & February. And, more importantly, they weren’t willing to wait and gamble on the after-Christmas sales rush in order to do it. We call this "leaving money on the table" and it’s usually a sign of desperation.
The bottom line is that 3.6% growth, or 13.6% growth, means nothing if you are not selling your merchandise at the profit margin required to stay in business. The failure to understand this is why so many small retailers don’t make it, and all the discussions about GDP and the rate of inflation will never change this simple fact.
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Can they really be this stupid? I guess so.
I only spent money for charity they got nothing from me and probaly many others hit by high housing prices etc. These corporations can declare fourth quarter losses as tax write offs. Doesn’t help the stck value. We are in for recession maybe they want to be able to pay their quarterly loans so they can buy for the next season.
Thank you for posting this — and saving me the trouble of having to. There is something extremely repellent in drooling imbecile triumphalism.
Good points. Let me add one other minor detail:
If they’re so damned “smart” then they must know that the dollar has DROPPED in value 12 percent from its 2007 high last January, according to the Washington Post, which means a 3.6% growth in retail sales (even assuming their moronic assumptions about what 3.6% growth means are correct, which they ain’t) equals a net LOSS from 2006 in real dollars.
If “real dollars” isn’t oxymoronic, that is. Drop the ‘oxy’ part and you’ve neatly characterized the jammie-wearing-fool, director-blue-crab-boulevard, et al response to these ‘heady’ economic concepts.
Next, they’ll be trying to split atoms using ball-peen hammers.
nor should we forget that this year we had the longest possible Christmas shopping season.
(and does anyone else remember the huzzahs from November’s retail sales figures — retail store sales were up 4.7% in November over last year, and the 3.6% total increase for the Xmas season suggests that December’s retail numbers will look even worse than 3.6%.)
From the same Times article:
…robust sales of luxury products… Luxury purchases rose 7.1 percent…
Let’s not forget, as the coming months bring a continuing crescendo of bad news and words like “slump”, “budget-tightening”, “foreclosure”, “bankruptcy”, “recession”, and worse, that it’s class-war, baby, and guess who’s winning. We’re reaping the unintended and intended consequences of the systematic eradication of any economic power of the middle- & working classes beyond consumption, and the latter is supported almost entirely by what’s tantamount to indentured credit. If and when the catastrophe hits, its victims will most certainly not be its chief architects and beneficiaries. For them, St. Bart’s will still be just as lovely, and the servants will seem ever more obsequious, n’est pas?
People who can’t comprehend the difference between “top line” and “bottom line” invariably can’t comprehend how a company can grow itself out of business.
Perhaps they can understand how an individual can grow himself into bankruptcy, nowadays, given the mortgage lending busted bubble?
Further proof that Goopers are incapable understanding even basic economics. I will never understand why they are considered “good for the economy”. Oh yeah, they lower taxes on corporations and the rich and gut environmental and labor laws. Guess that helps some businesses ovewr the short term, but the long term costs exceed any short term benefits. Jerkwads.
It’s not the businesses, but the business OWNERS that are personally being helped. Helping businesses would mean more for us lackeys that
are enslaved towork FOR the businesses.I’m a musician in the NYC Subway. On Christmas Eve I played the Wall Street Station. If I were to sum up the mood there, it would come down to 5 words:
“We’ve eaten the seed corn.”
I haven’t seen a holiday season this bad in 20 years. I’d always considered the last year of Reagan as the worst ever, but this year clearly takes the cake. In this type of downturn, the street feels it first.
My guess is that today many more folks than normal are returning their presents for cash refunds.
is this the same article kevin drum wrote about this morning? i guess it was even stupider than you thought…!
My guess is that today many more folks than normal are returning their presents for cash refunds.
a lot of stores aren’t refunding cash; it’s equal exchange…
On NPR this morning, the newsreader quoted the 3.6% growth in consumer spending figure, but then added that after spending for gasoline and food was eliminated the growth was .6%. I used the search dialog at npr.org, but was unable to find a confirmation of this report. radio :-p
I somehow doubt that a 3.6% increase would have anyone skipping down the street.
I grow more and more puzzled and alarmed at the lack of general knowledge I see in the world at large. Why are we having to put up with business news written by people who couldn’t run a lemonade stand? The internets are a factor in this (the 90’s business model of “give it away and make it up in volume” seems to have lived on after the bubble bursting in 2000) in that we have been able to cherry-pick our media sources to amplify our beliefs without challenging them or informing us in any way.
It’s a poor workman who blames his tools and they really should know better but as long as they’re happy with a 3.6% increase, they’re not likely to suddenly wise up.
Maybe it’s the post-Xmas fog in my brain, but I seem to recall that, when I was a youngster, the figures touted by companies in the press revolved around “profit”, not “growth”, and that the arguments arose about whether they were discussing net or gross profits.
When “growth” became the buzzword, I thought it was funny, since the word itself had even less fixed meaning than “profits”, and that it seemed like nothing but an attempt to create new ways to spread bullshit across the business pages. What, exactly, “grew” during the period in question. Profits? Revenues? The CEO’s salary? The ulcers of people on the lower rungs?
That was many years ago. I have yet to be convinced that this was not a correct reading of the situation.
Thanks to the internets, we can get some advance notice of these competitor wars. One such posting had over 100,000 views at comments that explained how to stack coupons that essentially gave a customer $20-$25 free merchandise at a well known drug store each and every time they shopped there.
I made several runs myself. And yet I have ambivalent feelings. I’m not worried that I am ripping them off. Heck, their CEOs and top brass are pulling in multi-million dollar salaries before bonuses. And their stock is way up this year. It’s not that I miss the personal sense of interaction and value as I engage in commerce. That’s long gone. But I worry that that when one giant firm finally rises to the top by destroying their competitors the beomuth will simply be unsustainable and our economic system will collapse. I am not sure what that will mean, or if my 37 tubes of free toothpaste will be enough to get me through the fallout.
Perhaps I am hastening the day when
The whole “growth” phenomenon dates back to the 1970s and the work of corporate raiders like Carl Icahn and T. Boone Pickens who claimed that corporations were not providing sufficient return on investment. Led to the so called “shareholder revolt”, a clever euphemism for a bunch of greedy investors shouting that their interests trumped everything else. They also started insisting on never ending growth in profits (aqnd thus returns on investment. This is an obviously absurd demand. Only companies in emergent industries (like computers in the 1980s) or those with radical innovations (cell phones) can expect ongoing growth. Mature markets, like automobiles or home appliances, are generally stable (hopefully) over the long term. The proper measure of performance there is stable profitability and investment in R & D. Most of what is wrong with business and the economy date to this event.
Along with “Growth” as a phony metric of economic strength we also got “job creation” as a phony metric of employment. This came to prominence in the Reagan years to show how “effective” Reagonomics was, as skilled jobs paying a living wage with good benefits were shipped offshore in bulk and and were replaced with low-wage jobs with limited or no benefits. “But look at all there new jobs“. More voodoo as the Rethugs worked to destroy the middle class.
I assumed they had at least adjusted the numbers for inflation. Made an ass out of me anyway.
Its just good ol’ Republican logic – yes, we lose money on each sale, but we make it up on volume.
Never assume anything. What’s the matter, didn’t you ever watch “The Odd Couple” (the TV version)?
I have a few friends who work retail, some off commission. They are all bitching. Most are down about 25% they figure. Not a single one is talking about the great holiday season they are having.
I also know several builders and several people working real estate. They are all looking for work in other fields. Everybody appears to be scrambling. This is not going to be pretty.
Most succinct explanation I’ve encountered. Thanks.
Worth noting that the first OPEC ‘oil crisis’ preceded those events.
But yeah, greed and unrealistic expectations sure put a wrench in the underlying economics.
Plus, we haven’t even touched on the ‘financialization’ of the US economy since the 1970s.
Nor the changes in campaign laws, which drive who gets elected, which drive what gets legislated, which drive what economic sectors develop.
The normal practice is that economic figures are usually not adjusted for inflation and that job figures do not include “discouraged workers,” those who have used up their unemployment and are no longer actively looking for work.
Checked with theoildrum.com today and it still looks like peak oil happened a year or two ago, depending upon how and exactly what you count. Not that anybody in power in the US or Europe seems to have noticed. Certainly, the media hasn’t. Whenever they write about oil and gas prices, they never write about world oil production numbers in context historically.
Of course, let’s not talk about the coming catastrophe that climate change is either.
Oh, and isn’t there a war or two going on too?
So is this the official start of Recession Season?
Recession Season, what’s your reason?
“Folks lust after money, they’re findin’ it pleasin’.”
Recession Season, who’re you squeezin’?
“It’s thos middle class people whose wages are freezin’…”