Folks, I think we need to brace ourselves. Kristol may not have “reason” or even any remaining shred of the Enlightenment on his side, but I fear he has the logic of poll numbers.

On the morning Palin was announced, I felt giddy with enthusiasm. I was convinced that the McCain campaign threw a Hail Mary pass because their internal polling had indicated that the Republican base was unsatisfied. I thought that if even the base was not secure going into the election, what hope could McCain have for getting swing voters and Hillary voters? I did a little reading before I left for work that morning and took note of all of the liabilities that Palin would be bring to the ticket–her connection with Ted Stevens, the Troopergate scandal, her total lack of insight on anything that did not have to do with Alaskan politics, and her whackadoo Christianist, Assembly of God values. I thought to myself: McCain’s campaign is being run by idiots. She wasn’t properly vetted–and only the most unstable of Hillary voters would be enticed to vote for her on gender grounds alone. For god’s sake: on both political and meritocratic grounds, Palin is the Anti-Hillary.

I am now convinced I celebrated too soon. Palin is going to be very difficult to dissect for the Obama campaign. Her personal matters, which may very well be given a thorough airing by tabloid media, are untouchable on the campaign trail. The network news reporters will NOT, I repeat, will NOT go there–which is, I think, in some ways quite unfortunate.

It is my considered assessment, based on everything I have read (and, trust me, I read everything my browser can cough up for me) and based on my many years of graduate study in psychoanalytic theory and clinical psychology, that the Sarah Palin many Americans think they are now getting to know bears little relation to the Sarah Palin who has clawed her way through the Alaska Republican Party and conservative establishment. One of the reasons why career politicians are the ones typically tapped for Vice-Presidential running mates is that they provide a reserve of established character and ethos that the Presidential candidates can draw upon to comfort party members and party sympathizers who may not be sufficiently on board with Candidate her- or himself. Even Dan Quayle had served close over a decade and half in a fairly populous state. GHWBush was wrong–in fact, autistically wrong–about the qualities and ethos Quayle would bring to the ticket. But it was not as though he picked a political unknown from the wilds of Alaska.

In McCain’s case, he indeed picked a political cipher. It may very well be that there has been some serious Rovian strategery put to work to guarantee that Palin functions as a consummate knuckleball for the Obama campaign to swing at. Perhaps they screwed up and, backs to the wall, came up with a winning strategy under the immense spectre of embarrassing failure. At this juncture, no one but the McCain campaign really knows. But we know this: Palin’s personal negatives for the educated and liberal wing of the American electorate are titanic positives for the very voters who had given GWBush such high poll numbers prior up through mid-2005.

Sarah Palin is the first proudly Redneck candidate in the modern history of the republic. She is a Nascar fan’s wet dream. Aspects of her personal values, reflected, say, in her sympathy for the Alaskan Independence movement, for strafing animals from airplanes, for her over-the-top love of guns, for her church’s program of deprogramming gays and lesbians, or even her deep ignorance of the complexity of the issues facing the world, are, simply, not that important to a wide swath of voters. Sarah Palin won the reality gameshow of “who gets to be America’s Vice-President” and this big chunk of the American electorate is cool with that.

Truth be told, had McCain gone with, say, Kay Bailey Huchison, the Bob Schieffers and Tom Brokaws might feel less skeptical, but the Nascar-NRA-electorate would not be nearly as juiced–not the conservative-leaning women from rural Indiana or Colorado springs (or throughout the South), and not the megachurch Dobsonites of both genders. Palin represents the opposite of meritocracy and aristocracy. Yeah, she’s “smart”–a “quick study” is how the newsmedia have been phrasing it over the past week–but she is entirely without intellect. Good lord, she makes Jonah Goldberg seem like a towering intellectual. She is a political opportunist and she is driven. In fact she’s “smart” in precisely the way Dan Quayle was not. From all reports, Quayle was a steady and engaged Senator. But he just was not very quick on his feet. “Seems kind of slow” is how my mother once put it years ago. No one can say that about Palin. Marilyn Quayle once commented that Dan had spent two summers trying to read Plato’s Republic. It was a joke that told itself, I know. But Palin, I am sure, does not give a rat’s ass about Plato or any other philosopher–never has owned the book and, I’m sure, never even glanced at the Cliff’s notes.

No, she’s a redneck. And she embraces it–as per the “Rouge Cou” name for her future consulting operation. Rednecks don’t read much. Not only is philosophy and “big think” not her thing, science does not appear to be either. I’m sure she’ll have some sort of boilerplate doubletalk well rehearsed for her interview with Charlie Gibson, but it seems clear to me that she really does not give a damn about climate change and isn’t all that convinced about evolution either.

Here’s the bottom line: the Obama campaign is pulled off its game (and will likely hurt its own credibility) if it tries to name what is problematic about her personal world, the newsmedia will not go there, and the blogging world is only talking to its own bases when we vent (as I have been, over and over again through the course of the last week) about what an extremist dope that Palin is.

None of this stuff–none of it–mattered when Quayle ran as GHWBush’s VP Candidate. None of it stuck. None if it made a difference–not in 1988, and not in 1992. People do vote for the top of the ticket. And in Palin’s case, it seems she has given a glow to McCain’s candidacy. True, that glow is probably toxic radiation, but two things have emerged: 1) she has energized both the Bush dead-enders and the male and female redneck constituency who will once again vote against their economic self-interests, and 2) her presence on the ticket seems to have produced the dissociation from Bush/Cheney that the McCain campaign had sought.

Sarah Palin is the first proudly Redneck candidate in the modern history of the republic. She is a Nascar fan’s wet dream. Aspects of her personal values, reflected, say, in her sympathy for the Alaskan Independence movement, for strafing animals from airplanes, for her over-the-top love of guns, for her church’s program of deprogramming gays and lesbians, or even her deep ignorance of the complexity of the issues facing the world, are, simply, not that important to a wide swath of voters. Sarah Palin won the reality gameshow of “who gets to be America’s Vice-President” and this big chunk of the American electorate is cool with that.

Lars: Truly excellent analysis.

Eight years ago, the wingnut faction voted for the candidate most of them would choose to have a beer with. This time most of them will vote for the potential Leader of the Free World most of the distaff wingnuts believe is “just like them,” and whose image most of their male electorate feel they can safely masturbate to. The Rovians are like Caligula junked out on X-ianity. At least the Roman emperors could legitimately blame their lapses in judgment on lead poisoning, syphilis or other incurable medical conditions.

The most glaring disjunctive in the McCain campaign is that, if asked, the vast majority of his constituency would modestly admit that they certainly weren’t qualified to be president. Logically, then, it would seem unlikely that they would vote for an unknown candidate who was “just like them.” Unfortunately, leadership in this country has become conflated with having a “special friend” in the White House. The wingnuts will vote against their own interests for people who appear to share their religious beliefs, but who won’t give a damn about X-ian values once they’ve assumed office. And when jobs are shipped overseas, or oil spikes in price in the middle of winter, they’ll blame “foreigners.”

Lars & Ruthie,
I’m impressed and informed by your excellent analysis, especially since I’m freakin’ speechless.

tbogg, I don’t appreciate being linked to Billy K on Monday morning. Nevertheless, I clicked on it. Mayor Caribou Barbie married a couple of Walmart Associates IN THE WASILLA WALMART?
Finger. on. nuclear. button.??? These bastards are determined to kill us all.

Just shoot me now.

Just to lighten up the pall of depression that seems to have descended here. Try this.

It is in the nature of left blogistan to overanalyze everything that happens, and also, sadly, to panic.

Lets look at what we do know:
1) Palin was pretty much a non-entity until 11 days ago. I remember people were interested in taking a look at New Coke when it came out, too. IMO the McCain campaign is keeper her cloistered because, yes, she’s a neophite, but also to keep her up her mysteriousness – the longer she stays unknown, the shorter time there will be for her to be exposed as the Christianist loon she is before election day.

2) The best we could have hoped for with Bush’s base (his pretend one, not his real “rich white guy” one) is that they would have been so nonplussed by McCain that they wouldn’t have voted at all – they were never going to vote for Obama. Never. Palin patched up that problem for McCain, probably the only way he could have.

3) Historically, the candidate that has led through the summer generally ends up winning the race. Obama led throughout the summer. I think things will settle back into where they were, a small Obama lead give or take, in another week or so. If two weeks out, after the debates are done, and Palin/McCain still leads, then I’ll panic. And start liquidating assets.

Here a picture of Caribou Barbie from the Alaskan blog Mudflats. Maybe Tbogg could start using it like he uses the pie pic above for all thing Kristol, for all thing Palin.

Kristol w/pie now hangs in the National Gallery. Or will when I figure how to do it. How does one sneak into a museum to hang a piece of fine art?
Palins a nightmare. She is the symbol of todays America. Smart but uneducated, uncultured and proud of it. Wears her spirituality on her sleeve, but practices it selectively. Mean spirited, greedy and lacking compassion and/or moral compass. Whats not to love/hate, depending on your view?

Attention Wasilla Wal-Mart shoppers,

You might want to stop in Aisle 6 for a little gift, before headin’ over to Aisle 14 where our very own Tamilyn Watson & Billy “Buck” Rodgers were just hitched!

Reception is goin’ on in Aisle 15, where a cash bar is servin’ up RC Cola and Mooselodge punch. Stop by and give ‘em your congrats.

Mayor Barbie will be signing autographs until 3:00 pm.

The problem with Palin is all possible criticisms of her can be spun by the McCain campaign to play to their base. Talk about her anti-choice beliefs and they scream that you are taking potshots at her family. Talk about her inexperience and they scream that you are insulting small-town voters. Talk about her lunatic insistence that God is commanding we fight the Iraq war, and you’re alienating Christians. And so on. She’s the perfect culture war candidate. The only thing the Obama campaign can do is slam her for her lies, but our media has already demonstrated that they have no interest whatsoever in reporting about lies unless Al Gore is telling them.

It’s just so demoralizing to see this election go back to the same culture war stereotypes that have been running our country into the ground for 8 years. If this stuff works on the voters again, I seriously think we may be beyond hope.

Don’t panic. At least not yet.

Gov. Palin will be a potent and energizing force for a campaign that was desperately in need of some juice, but her appeal is almost entirely to the Republican base. Those folks were not going to vote for a Democrat, particularly a black one, so they were never on the table.

The real issue is how this plays with the independents. Once people start getting a sense of her personal politics –abstinence only sex ed; no abortions even for rape or incest; global warming denier; irresponsible on fiscal issues after leaving Wasilla facing a $22-million deficit; ran a 527 for corrupt Sen. Ted Stevens– she’s likely to look a lot less attractive.

Frankly, it was partially the hysterical coverage of her family issues by some on the left that has given the Republicans a cudgel with which to bash the media. The lesson is to forget about the 5-month-old and her pregnant daughter and just keep pounding away on her lies, her political beliefs and her poor performance in Alaska.

OK Kids,

It is my humble but very firm opinion that Barack Hussein Obama will be the next President of the United States.
Why do I believe so? A few reasons.

To begin with there is this: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ As the Votemaster points out, this is NOT a national race but 51 (50 states plus D.C.) individual winner-take-all races of varying values. Compare to Kerry/Bush four years ago. If you want a Republican slant you can go here (Obama’s still ahead).

And then there are the odds-makers. Now they have been known to be wrong in the past (go Giants) but not very often.

Finally there is (of course) money. As best as I can tell, the person with the most money has won the Presidential Election for at least as long as I have been alive (and probably a lot longer). I have no reason to doubt this year will be different.

So enjoy the show. If you live in a battleground state (or even if you don’t) donate and/or volunteer. But try not to worry too much (at least not at this point).

Thanks.

The culture war strategy can backfire – think Terri Schiavo. Having to go back to that reflects their inability to run on the issues. Obama and Biden need to run on the issues that most of us think are important – economy, Iraq, etc., keep saying Bush – Bush – Bush.

Pam:

We don’t have to touch the culture wars–or her family. At some point the wingnuts are going to have to turn away from their beer, their nachos, and that chunk of Sara Lee chocolate pound cake with half a quart of Breyer’s Strawberry cheesecake ice cream on top that they’re hiding behind, and think about some real issues:

1. As VP, Palin will he a heartbeat away from the President. Should women experiencing post-partum depression be permitted that close to the nuclear button?

2. If a President Palin attempts to fire Gen. Patraeus because he refuses to nuke Iran without Congressional approval, would this be an abuse of her authority.

3. If God favors building a Pipeline through Alaska, does He say so in the Bible? (One would think that Someone as big on laws as God was would put this in writing….) And if it IS in the Bible, is this in the OT, the King James NT or some newfangled version that only the Assembly of God recognizes?

4. What is Palin’s view on hybrid snowmobiles? Would Jesus drive a snowmobile or would he use snowshoes?

5. How does conducting marriages in the aisle of a Wal-Mart preserve the sanctity of marriage?

6. Has Palin ever killed a moose with an M-16 like the one she was holding in a PR photograph? (My guess is no.)

7. Much has been made of the fact that “Caribou Barbie” shoots her own moose. Big whoop. Can Palin field dress her own carcass? How long does it take? And which does she prefer for tenderizing the meat: Coke, Pepsi or Jack Daniels?

8. Enough with the fluff! The Bush administration recently announced that it would assume temporary control over the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in an attempt to calm their influence on Wall Street’s market fluctuations. The cost of this bailout package ranges from zero to stratospheric, depending on who you talk to. Does Palin favor the bailout? Or would it make more economic sense to Palin if Bush just told the banks to hire arsonists from across the border to torch the most hideously overvalued properties, and let the re-insurers pick up the tab?

9. Bush has vetoed two earlier versions of legislation expanding the Children’s Health Insurance Program, because they could eventually open the door to “government-run health care for every American.” If Palin had to step into the shoes of the President, and was subsequently faced with such legislation, how would she vote? If Palin vetoed such legislation, what measures would she propose to insure that all children from families that could not afford health insurance received basic care? Just out of curiosity, does Palin  know the average cost to employers of providing health insurance coverage to employees and their families? Does Palin even know what the average cost of COBRA Continuation Coverage is for a family of 4 in the lower 48? If she DOES know the answer to these questions by the time ABC interviews her, did she know before Rove’s minions “prepped” her?

10. In your speech, you claimed you would champion the rights of special needs children. Isn’t that special. If you were President, who would you appoint to the U.S. Supreme Court in order to insure that public schools in America didn’t just “warehouse” kids like Trigg?

I can’t tell if this is snark or a combination of snark and seriousness, but..

1. As VP, Palin will he a heartbeat away from the President. Should women experiencing post-partum depression be permitted that close to the nuclear button?

No. Let’s just not even go there.

5. How does conducting marriages in the aisle of a Wal-Mart preserve the sanctity of marriage?

Duh! It was a het couple. That’s all that really matters to anyone trumpeting that “sanctity” BS, not whether the marriage was actually done in any sort of, y’know, sanctified setting.

Oh, and the Democrats have decided not to push for another expansion of S-CHIP that would have come up for a vote right before the election. Can’t have that kind of nasty, divisive politics right before the country decides if it wants another four years of drowning government in the bathtub! That just wouldn’t be sporting!

This may actually be a strategic move. If the Dems bring it up now, the S-CHIP expansion will surely be vetoed by Bush, and the Dems don’t have enough votes to override the veto. They won’t get to bring it to a vote again for at least another year. IF they wait until after the election in January, the Dems may have enough votes to override a veto, even if the Republicans win the Presidency.

Here is a question I’ve concoted. It’s complicated, but realistic and related to knowledge of the world.

Let’s ay someone like Belgium or Norway or Venezuela, okay let’s say Venezuela, contracted with Cuba to drill an off-shore oil well and when they drilled it they turned the straw northwest into American waters.

We all know sending an army or rockets into another country to explode and blow up stuff is an act of war. Is oil theft a violation of international law? Is it an act of war? Is it worth going to military war over?

Would we have to go to war against Cuba or Venezuela or both?

What if they used drilling equipment leased or bought from Russia? Would we also have to go to war against Russia?