Marc Ambinder thinks that Sarah Palin is running for 2012 even though the body of John McCain’s campaign (and John for that matter) isn’t even cold yet:

There’s a suspicion in some McCain loyalist precincts that Gov. Sarah Palin is beginning to play the Republican base against John McCain — McCain won’t let her campaign in Michigan…McCain won’t let her bring up Jeremiah Wright… McCain doesn’t like her terrorist pal talks….

Think ahead to 2010…2011…2012.

Palin is ambitious. Very ambitious.

And if she wants the job, she’s easily the frontrunner to become THE voice of the angry Right in the Wilderness. She is a favorite of talk radio and Fox News conservatives, and speaks their language as only a true member of the club can. (Her recent Limbaugh interview was full of dog whistles that any Dittohead would recognize. Including her actual use of the word ditto.)

There are an awful lot of assumptions at play here. First off, whether she can hang onto her job or get reelected in Alaska. Forget for a moment whether all of her known and yet to be discovered legal/ethical issues go away; Alaskans will either support her because they think she was treated poorly by the lower 48 and the evil elitist media or they are currently looking on aghast because the rest of the country discovered that their hot new girlfriend is an idiot.

Secondly, between now and 2012 that same evil elitist media (not to mention a vengeful Mitt Romney) are going to have four leisurely years to pick through the detritus of her college years, career, personal life, and those $15 million emails. Think of it as  Alaskan Gold Rush v.2.

Thirdly, how does one become not a national joke? Sarah Palin is more Dan Quayle than she is Richard Nixon even if she shares and possibly rivals Nixon’s vindictive streak. It’s entirely possible that two years from now, when people think of Sarah Palin, the little projector in their heads will run Tina Fey videos.

Ambinder believes that she will have become more fluent on national issues, but she has shown very little ability to demonstrate or articulate a deep understanding on any topic possibly because she is enamored with her own cuteness and still believes that she can soundbite her way through policy discussions. She may be able to charm her way through a debate in Alaska but she never had to face a Romney, that creepy Bobby Jindal, or even Rick Santorum if Jeebus tells him his time is now. Additionally, being Governor of Alaska isn’t exactly a high profile job. It’s going to be hard for her to run in the lower 48 wihout spending a lot of time outside of her state which may not play well at home in Nome.

I could be wrong. Maybe four years will wash away the stain of the past ten weeks and Sarah Palin will attain elder statesman status. Anything is possible.

As Noah Cross once said:

‘Course I’m respectable. I’m old. Politicians, ugly buildings, and whores all get respectable if they last long enough.