House of H8

The strategist behind Prop H8:

 Less than two weeks before Election Day, the chief strategist behind a ballot measure outlawing same-sex marriage in California called an emergency meeting here.

 “We’re going to lose this campaign if we don’t get more money,” the strategist, Frank Schubert, recalled telling leaders of Protect Marriage, the main group behind the ban

[...]

By mid-October, most independent polls showed support for the proposition was growing, but it was still trailing. Opponents had brought on new media consultants in the face of the slipping poll numbers, but they were still effectively raising money, including $3.9 million at a star-studded fund-raiser held at the Beverly Hills home of Ron Burkle, the supermarket billionaire and longtime Democratic fund-raiser.

It was then that Mr. Schubert called his meeting in Sacramento. “I said, ‘As good as our stuff is, it can’t withstand that kind of funding,’ ” he recalled.

[...]

But the “Yes” side also initially faced apathy from middle-of-the-road California voters who were largely unconcerned about same-sex marriage. The overall sense of the voters in the beginning of the campaign, Mr. Schubert said, was “Who cares? I’m not gay.”

To counter that, advertisements for the “Yes” campaign also used hypothetical consequences of same-sex marriage, painting the specter of churches’ losing tax exempt status or people “sued for personal beliefs” or objections to same-sex marriage, claims that were made with little explanation.

Another of the advertisements used video of an elementary school field trip to a teacher’s same-sex wedding in San Francisco to reinforce the idea that same-sex marriage would be taught to young children.

“We bet the campaign on education,” Mr. Schubert said.

The “Yes” campaign was denounced by opponents as dishonest and divisive, but the passage of Proposition 8 has led to second-guessing about the “No” campaign, too, as well as talk about a possible ballot measure to repeal the ban. Several legal challenges have been filed, and the question of the legality of the same-sex marriages performed from June to Election Day could also be settled in court.

For his part, Mr. Schubert said he is neither anti-gay — his sister is a lesbian — nor happy that some same-sex couples’ marriages are now in question. But, he said, he has no regrets about his campaign.

“They had a lot going for them,” Mr. Schubert said of his opponents. “And they couldn’t get it done.”

Of course, Schubert wasn’t right on all of his calls this election cycle:

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the selection of Palin is how women have reacted to it. Hillary Clinton called it a “historic nomination.” My wife, and her friend who joined us in Maui, know little about politics. They couldn’t have told you who Sarah Palin was. But it didn’t take 10 minutes of news reporting about her background, the description of her as a mother, her decision to keep her Down Syndrome baby, and seeing her at ease on the stage in Dayton before both women had made up their minds: they were voting for “Sarah.” Not Governor Sarah Palin. Sarah. For two days all over Maui, I heard women repeatedly refer to her as Sarah. They feel like they know her. They like her. She is one of them.

Barack Obama has based his entire campaign on the amorphous idea of ‘change.’ Yet his Vice Presidential pick of Joe Biden is as old, tired and inside-the-beltway as they come. How is this guy with white balding hair (hair plugs at that) and sagging jowls going to look standing next to the fit 44 year old former state basketball champion? Not very well is how. Who will really represent change when the cameras have them both on stage? The Senator who has been in Washington longer than half of America has been alive, or the young attractive Governor who has fought corruption in her own party while staying married to her high school sweetheart and raising five children? Wow, what a contrast. Let’s go ahead and have that ‘change’ debate.

Kudos to Senator McCain for a truly brilliant, race-changing pick. He took a risk but it is one that could well result in him winning the White House. And kudos to his staff for their brilliant manipulation of the news cycle. Their timing of the announcement, and the surprise that is was, totally trumped Obama’s expected media glow coming off his exceptionally well-delivered (but largely non-substantive) speech in Denver. Obama and their campaign were blown off the front pages with the pick of Palin and were left bumbling trying to react.

Cynical manipulation will only take you so far.