Unskewed numbers genius and human gravy manufacturing plant Dean Chambers wants you to know that Nate Silver is skewing those poll numbers because he is either queerer than a three dollar bill (so, you know, he probably not using straight heterosexual math where 1+1 = 2 but instead uses gay math like Adam + Steve = gaymarried) or Silver is a penis-less numbers eunuch. One of those. But first…
While many conservatives look to former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris to understand the polls and political surveys on the elections, or even a site like UnSkewedPolls.com, those on the left look to New York Times blogger Nate Silver. Silver had a background in analyzing and writing about baseball that Wikipedia describes as, “Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.”
We’ll just back the fuck up right here and point out that Dean claims that conservatives get their hot polling action from Dick Morris (YES!) and UnSkewedPolls.com, which happens to be his own site but he doesn’t mention that because he’s not into bragging on himself since he is very humble …. and for good reason, I might add.
Okay, now here is why you can’t trust Nate Silver:
Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he’s made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.
Apparently, Nate Silver has his own way of “skewing” the polls. He appears to look at the polls available and decide which ones to put more “weighting” on in compiling his own average, as opposed to the Real Clear Politics average, and then uses the average he calculates to determine that percentages a candidate has of winning that state. He labels some polling firms as favoring Republicans, even if they over sample Democrats in their surveys, apparently because he doesn’t agree with their results. In the end the polls are gerrymandering into averages that seem to suit his agenda to make the liberal Democrats candidates apparently strong than they are.
Fair enough. So, if we throw out Nate Silver’s polling algayrithms, how is the election really going to turn out?
Here is manly man Drew Chamber’s projection:
Mitt Romney has it in the bag and should take the next week off.
That would be ballsy…





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The sound of the wailing and gnashing is going to be so sweet.
“All that smoke we were blowing up our own asses was proof of how popular Romney was!!”
EVERYBODY IN AMERICA IS CONSPIRING AGAINST US!!!!
Seriously, Oregon going to Rmoney? Maybe if Portland and Salem simultaneously sink into the Pacific.
Opps, too late, ballots have been sent…
That map might happen if you polled nursing home patients at pudding time.
So that’s what Uncle Fester looked like before he went bald.
“very small stature, a thin and effeminate man”
This guy clearly measures people based on how many steaks he thinks he could get out of them, giving a new right-wing twist to the expression “never trust anyone under 30″.
No, that’s Uncle Fester’s and Aunt Jemima’s love child.
Seriously, Oregon going to Rmoney?
I laughed at that.
Granted, this is the home of the Oregon Citizens Alliance of yore, but if Oregon is going red this year, I’ll eat my hat.
And I will be doing my patriotic duty this weekend. (Filling out my ballot, that is; not punching Dean Chambers in the nutsack.)
Looks more like the bastard child of Fatty Arbuckle and the Michelin Man
I daresay, Dean Chambers is quite a bullshitter.
Seriously, Oregon going to Rmoney?
Well, okay, maybe not.
Assuming the presence of said “sack”, from the accompanying photo it would be a high kick. I’m pretty sure what we have here is a “Ballchinian”.
guyz like dean chambers use guyz like nate silver as anal plugs during polling pleasure cruising … and kegel weights for cheetorea controlz …
Check his site on November 6 and watch that map vanish down the memory hole. “What map?”
Bullshitter.
Sorry if I offended any tender ears.
First question: Who is Dean Chambers? Seems like I shouldn’t care who he is, but I guess I gotta ask since he’s on the front page here.
Second: Why would someone who’s so delusional stop at giving Romney Illinois or more of New England? I mean, why stop at giving Romney Ohio?
I don’t know what Nate Silver looks like but I’d be willing to bet that it’s a whole lot better than Mr. Chambers with his several chins. Why would he think that looks have anything to do with competence?
Hey another Oregonian, here!
1)Not only would PDX need to sink, they’d need to sink pulling Eugene and Corvallis, along with them.
2) Suddenly all the Puggies are running around insisting the time to turn us red is HERE!!! Nate Silver himself had a piece about just that. He promptly rebuffed by real Oregonians who gently explained that the Republican “party” in our fair state is basically Greg Walden and a couple of guys who still dig Ayn Rand.
What’s funny is that meanwhile these same baggers who claim the day is HERE!!! Will promptly turn around and bitch away about “all the libtards in the seven counties”. Yeah, the same 7 counties where most of the state’s citizens live and work. Imagine that!
I also notice this is a new Puggie meme “ONLY Nate Silver and MSNBC say the electoral map looks that way”. Ignoring other sites like 270towin, electoral-vote and even (to a sulky, lesser, begrudging extent) realclearpolitics.
Oh well, I guess now I know where they get that Mittens/Munster landslide thing-y
Nate Silver (when the MSNBC makeup ladies are done with him) is cute in a very, very geeky sort of way. But yes, it’s still vastly superior to that Pugly Adams meets Glenn Beck creature up there
If Dean Chambers wants to have a contest about who looks more effeminate, I’d like to submit a picture of my late grandmother — who looked alarmingly like Mr. Chambers and not in any way like Nate Silver.
He looks like one of Willard’s pasty po folks from down Provo way.
Looks like a two fisted Big Gulper and prolly drives a MAV(Mormon assult vehicle-i.e.Suburban).
Shorter Dean Chambers: Nate Silver’s math is bad because he’s a girly-man who looks like a castrati. My math is better because I’m so manly I even look like a scrotum.
Oh also, too, also: Meanwhile big winner Mittens has to alter his rally photos to make turnout look more impressive
http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva
Dean Chambers is an outstanding reason for birth control.
And I would be he is a closet case. Guys who always rail on the manliness of other guys usually have something to hide themselves.
Ha ha ha ha ha.
When Romney wins they won’t be getting pudding anymore.
Nor will they have a bed in a nursing home.
Actually, he kind of reminds me of Eric, Son of Ericson. The pair would seem to be natural collaborators.
Salem and surrounding Marion County are actually fairly Republican areas, not at all like Portland. Maybe you mean Corvallis or Eugene or even Ashland.
That said, you’re absolutely right. Mitt has no chance here.
Yep, meant Corvallis. Didn’t notice my brain fart until it was too late to change it.
Remember, there is a world of people who get paid (generously rewarded) for telling people what they want to hear, without respect to any facts or scientific methods used.
Many work in large institutions (cough, cough…military…cough…White house…cough…Fortune 500…), and are promoted quickly.
Check his site on November 6 and watch that map vanish down the memory hole. “What map?”
Ask for him the day after the elections and you shall find him a grave man.
Or is it “gravy-laden” as our modern bard host suggested? A plague on both his chins!
Speaking of math, or at least statistics, we have anomalies. Specifically, the computer voting machines have been flipping votes from D to R, for years. I think Nate Silver neglected this, which will be the path to victory for President Romoney and First Lady Anne, and First Horse Rafala.
Apparently, Mittens stole several or all of the 2012 Primary Elections. Sorry Rick Sanitorium.
Yeah, that’s pretty much a good working assumption these days. The louder the posturing, the more likely the closet.
Oh, but you haven’t seen his awesome methodology. First, he takes the raw numbers from the last four elections (because how people voted in 1996 is obviously relevant to this year). Then, he applies other factors, such as the opinion of the illustrious QStarNews, which may well be reporting from 1996 judging by its site design. After that, he takes a nap, throws it all out and decides that Oregon is going to swing 22 points from 2008. “Major surprise,” indeed.
Also among his “surprises” – Colorado, in spite of “growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive,” will nevertheless swing 17 points to the Republicans. Wow, when you just make it up as you go, polling’s easy!
A few other potboilers from our noble unskewerer:
-A 14-point swing in New York
-A 17-point swing in New Hampshire
-A 17-point swing in Nevada
-An 18-point swing in Michigan
-A 34-point swing in Hawaii.
Clearly, Fox News is right – with reality-based predictions like these, we have to take him seriously.
Now we know what Ryan’s budget numbers guy does in his spare time.
A fucking Republican Tribal Elder right there.
Apparently, there is a memo going ’round.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan?pg=1
also,
http://www.sadlyno.com/
Minnesota last voted R for Prez 40 years ago. I guess Mitt is just such a great candidate that we can’t resist this year.
CNN has some polls up and the,trends are not good in the,battleground,states. Romney also leads in the,popular vote by a small percentage. So now I am officially depressed.
It gets better: The only states that go for Obama in 2012 are the 13 that went Democratic in the four previous elections. (NJ, MN, and PA break their streak.) In fact, there’s a pattern that reproduces Chambers’s outcomes with only one outlier: If a state’s popular vote went 40.5% or higher for McCain, it’s in the bag for Romney. Yeah, that’s believable.
Well, at least from the looks of this Dean Chambers, you probably shouldn’t cast in his teeth the aspersion that he’s a “breeder”.
Wasn’t Rommeny supposed to released his taxes by now?
A little nugget in that Nate Silver-bashing National Review article:
Got that? The vastly unrealistic and flawed model of 538.com is nearly a point different from one they’re holding up as the model! But it’s a very liberal, very naughty fraction of a point no doubt.
This is the best part though, the next sentence says:
So the worst slur against Nate Silver that they can think of is to say that he’s like Dean Chambers. Now that’s comedy.
It’s an actual limitation to Silver’s method that he doesn’t throw out old results from the same polling outfit when he gets new results from that outfit. He has a valid reason for doing this, that results bounce around with sampling error, so you give them a chance to regress to the mean by holding on to gradually de-weighted older results. But that does mean his solution could lag on identifying a real trend. I got a bit nervous during the Romney surge after the first debate that 538 was underreporting the bad news. But now that that surge has leveled off, Silver’s method is clearly superior. It may miss real trends early on, but it does a better job at filtering out noise, that dead fish tracking poll phenomenon that the commenter at dKos blogged aobut the other night.
Crate him!
Enjoy your 15 minutes Dean. After this election, no one will want your “All You Can Eat Buffet” stench anywhere near them or their own political projections.
Ha!
Rachel Maddow pointed out the other night that Nebraska awards electoral votes by congressional district, and Obama carried Omaha last time. Guess what? He’s gonna do it again!
But look at the map above; studley stud Dean Chambers simply ignores the realities of Omaha…if I were Mittens, I’d stay on the campaign trail next week, no matter what Tbogg says.
What’s particularly hilarious is that realclearpolitics is right leaning, so if you’re gonna be completely fair, you need to throw out a half point on BOTH sides. Also, too, also—both sites include some seriously garbage polls (like ARG and Gravis, not to mention Assmussen) in their aggregate. Plus the national tracking is “likely voters”—no pollster will reveal their “likely voter” model and the flaw potential sometimes runs very, very deep.
@bluedot, what polls are these? Cause most of the battlegrounds I saw today we fairly favorable towards the Prez. If you’re referring to a Razzy outlier putting Wisconsin as a tie, there’s no point in paying attention to their silliness. http://www.politicalwire.com, typically has all the polls, with comments on them,. I didn’t see anything terrible. CNN’s own poll in Ohio (which is basically the election) has Bamz up by 4!
CNN today seems to be all about a new poll showing Obama up by 5 in Ohio.
Look at the direction the lines are going at Nate Silver’s blog right now.
Also GDP grew at a higher rate than expected, and higher than last quarter. While most likely nothing will make much of a difference at this point, a “going in the right direction!” story on the economy undermining Mitt’s main selling point can’t hurt.
When I saw Orygun as a red state, I was totally flummoxed, the guy obviously doesn’t know anything about Oregon, especially Wayne Morse, Mark Hatfield, etc.
Yeah, I’m not sure why bluedot’s all upset. BTW, from what I gather the jobs report that comes out next Friday is expected to be a goodie!
Returning to the map—I’ll give Pugsly this much, he isn’t as crazee as some of the wingnuts on the Yahoo! news blogs. ONe of those teatards persuaded themselves that MA would easily go for Mittens (cause he was thier governor and everything) and CT would quickly follow suit. Ummmmm..
The Oct. surprise is going to be the Franken storm getting ready to deal a knock blow to the Northeastern corridor. How Obama deals with it will determine this election.
If this thing is going to be Obama’s Katrina it better get a move on. At this point the storm won’t happen until next week, then any catastophe will take days to play out, leaving only a couple of days for whatever outrage FOX invents to get its sea legs and really get under steam, at which point the only remaining actual undecideds who weren’t enough to move the results anyway will have voted already.
But good luck. Gog works in mysterious ways.
This is great news!
Voting is very hard work and now that I, a proud resident of Hippy/TrackTownUSA*, understand that Oregon is firmly in the red column I don’t have to
lickapply that pre-licked stamp to my ballot envelope. Whew!Pure and simple, I symbolically protest the red takeover by refusing to vote.
*Go Ducks!
Hey, you’re trying to talk sense to a fucking clown there.
seaglass writes:
And:
“If Barry wasn’t such a dick this wouldn’t even be close.”
You think that’s bad, the first map this guy put out had Romney winning Delaware. DELAWARE!!! I’d sure like to hear Mr. Biden’s opinion on that.
Sooooo, umm, he’s gonna join Halperin (who lately hasn’t even really pissed me off THAT much), David Gregory, L’il Lukie Russert and Ginger C-word Chuckie Todd in their hair braiding/slumber party as they chat about that dreamy Eddie Munster and his hottie dad, Thurston?
-A 34-point swing in Hawaii.
*heh* I’d eat my palmfrond hat, aloha shirt, surfer shorts, and slippahs, if that were to happen…! ;-)
So not five minutes ago I’m reading a story from the telegraph about how Nate Silver is harshing all over the Mittster’s I’ve-still-got-the-momentum-mojo narrative and the writer predicts that the attacks on Silver should be happening any day now – and boom here it is.
How does that work on the right – is there an email that goes out in morning? A huddle like in football? Some combination of prayer breakfast/fraternity homoerotic tighty-whitey paddling ceremony?
Circle jerk, of course
Ah, that explains so much.
ScrotumFaceDean or seaglass?
This ‘football huddle’ you speak of? What’s it for?
Go Ducks!
Sorry, seaglass. Scrotum faced Dean wouldn’t get invited to such a genteel event. He would just jack off to Ryan pics in a van down by the river (with Rushie and Erick Erickson)
There have been questions about a lot of those polls, especially since many of them were done before the third debate.
http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2012/10/26/unskewed-studmuffin-dean-chambers-does-not-care-for-nate-silvers-dickless-polling/#comment-113601
It’s been bugging me all day, but I finally found who this guy reminds me of:
http://www.dvdtalk.com/reviews/images/reviews/166/1220495554_1.jpg
(Chet, from ‘Weird Science’)
I see him as a dead ringer for TV’s Frank (MST3K)
Awww I love TV’s Frank
I’m going with a Tor Johnson look for Mr. Clean-on-lard-diet, but without the serious acting chops. Maybe a love child of Tor and that heavy-make-up girl from the old Drew Carey show (don’t remember name, don’t care to). I ain’t going back to Ohio, no way, shape or form, for any reason.
Considering that the President has been pummeled unceasingly since taking office I am surprised the map doesn’t look like this guys fantasy. If we had had this type of “opposition” from our founding we would not have a nation at all.
Oregon’s been polled precisely twice (by SUSA) in the past month: both show O50 R41 or thereabouts, and that’s all the polling data that Mr UnskewedJowls is working with. Perhaps he can put his money where his map is?
someone has to put the below in below average, the deviation in standard deviation σ , the error in the margin of error, the overflow in arithmetic overflow, the noise in the signal to noise, the mean in the mean absolute error, the least in the least absolute deviations, the slob in the slob in the mob, the harkonnen in the baron vladimir harkonnen, the creosote in mr. creosote, the glutonny in the se7en gluttony victim, the …
Well, your city is gone, anyway.
Unfortunately, since national voting is done through states’ governments, whose secretaries of state are presumably easily bought if GOP, if this NSA guy is right then we may never see another Democratic president again. There is simply nothing to be done at a federal level, which means 50 different movements to restore democracy would need to sprout up around the country at the same time to change various disparate state laws and elect Democratic governors in enough states all at once… so, like I said, unlikely. Unless it’s some kind of DINO puppet who is just there to tarnish the brand, Obama will be our last kinda Progressive president. It’s Brawndo onwards after him.
If this guy is right.